From storylines to scenarios: raising awareness and decision support (Бразил)

Investigating viable carbon-optimized land management strategies, which maintain or improve ecosystem function, under changing climate conditions in the Southern Amazon - using regional scenarios generated from storylines.

Aims / objectives: One objective of the Carbiocial project, in close cooperation with its Brazilian partner project Carbioma, is to explore how land use change in one of Brazil’s most dynamic regions will develop in the next 30 years and how it will be affected by the implementation of land-use planning options and conservation policies. For this purpose a set of scenarios was created. The scenarios portray different plausible development pathways for the region. Each scenario consists of a storyline: a brief narrative of the future. At this level farmers and institutions are involved. An expert panel translated the findings of several stakeholder workshops and extensive stakeholder and expert interviews, conducted in 2012, into qualitative information needed to elaborate these scenarios. Four storylines emerged: (1) “business-as-usual”; (2) sustainable, extensive use of the Amazon; (3) legal intensification; (3) illegal intensification.

Methods: It was agreed that the communication between qualitative social science data and quantitative data had to be considered carefully. A blend of the required input factors for the models was agreed as guiding principles for all storylines: these were: population, agrarian production, livestock, agrarian and environmental policies, protected areas, infrastructure, impact of climate change (mitigation/adaptation). In a second step, qualitative data had to be added to the models; to limit bias, all available German experts on Southern Amazonia participated in a day-long (and quite controversial) brainstorming session producing content for the four storylines.
After translating the results into Portuguese the outcome was discussed with representatives of government and NGOs to discuss their plausibility and to modify accordingly. The input of local stakeholders was included on the basis of discussions and qualitative interviews. Generally speaking, the feedback loops with Brazilian stakeholders’ happened rather arbitrarily. Participation could have been better if planned more methodically and earlier.
The three hypothetical storylines describe different pathways of future regional development within the two states. Due to the strong linkages of Southern Amazonia to global markets (e.g. exports of soybean and meat) it was necessary to portray this dependency as one important determinant within the scenarios. Also, law enforcement of the existing legal situation was considered: more than 40% of Amazônia comprises protected areas. In order to portray the possibility of progressive environmental and indigenous legislation, a vibrant civil society, and well-institutionalized public prosecutors, a sustainability scenario was designed.
The next step was the quantification of the qualitative information to facilitate a simulation-based scenario analysis. Simulation models will be combined as software packages to support the decision-taking process from local to landscape and regional scale. All research and implementation activities include direct involvement of the stakeholders. Field experiments for improving C storage and ecosystem function will be performed in cooperation with an NGO founded by the farmers of Mato Grosso.

Other important information: A set of land use maps was generated to depict scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The objective of this modelling and mapping exercise is to support decision-makers to better interpret the scenarios and their implications. These new layers of information will facilitate further model or GIS-based analysis of land use change impacts on the regional carbon balance and the loss of biodiversity, and may act as a test-bed for the development of strategies towards sustainable land management.