From storylines to scenarios: raising awareness and decision support [巴西]
- 编制者： Jan Goepel
- 编辑者： –
- 审查者： David Streiff
approaches_2616 - 巴西
Embrapa Rice & Beans,
Leibniz University Hannover
University of Innsbruck
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)
Free University Berlin
Georg August University Göttingen
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的项目名称（如相关）Carbon optimized land management strategies for southern Amazonia (CARBIOCIAL / GLUES)
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称（如相关）Georg August Universität Göttingen (Georg August Universität Göttingen) - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称（如相关）Leibniz Institute for Regional Geography (IfL) - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称（如相关）Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin) - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称（如相关）Universität Kassel - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称（如相关）Universität Hamburg (UHH) - 德国
Investigating viable carbon-optimized land management strategies, which maintain or improve ecosystem function, under changing climate conditions in the Southern Amazon - using regional scenarios generated from storylines.
Aims / objectives: One objective of the Carbiocial project, in close cooperation with its Brazilian partner project Carbioma, is to explore how land use change in one of Brazil’s most dynamic regions will develop in the next 30 years and how it will be affected by the implementation of land-use planning options and conservation policies. For this purpose a set of scenarios was created. The scenarios portray different plausible development pathways for the region. Each scenario consists of a storyline: a brief narrative of the future. At this level farmers and institutions are involved. An expert panel translated the findings of several stakeholder workshops and extensive stakeholder and expert interviews, conducted in 2012, into qualitative information needed to elaborate these scenarios. Four storylines emerged: (1) “business-as-usual”; (2) sustainable, extensive use of the Amazon; (3) legal intensification; (3) illegal intensification.
Methods: It was agreed that the communication between qualitative social science data and quantitative data had to be considered carefully. A blend of the required input factors for the models was agreed as guiding principles for all storylines: these were: population, agrarian production, livestock, agrarian and environmental policies, protected areas, infrastructure, impact of climate change (mitigation/adaptation). In a second step, qualitative data had to be added to the models; to limit bias, all available German experts on Southern Amazonia participated in a day-long (and quite controversial) brainstorming session producing content for the four storylines.
After translating the results into Portuguese the outcome was discussed with representatives of government and NGOs to discuss their plausibility and to modify accordingly. The input of local stakeholders was included on the basis of discussions and qualitative interviews. Generally speaking, the feedback loops with Brazilian stakeholders’ happened rather arbitrarily. Participation could have been better if planned more methodically and earlier.
The three hypothetical storylines describe different pathways of future regional development within the two states. Due to the strong linkages of Southern Amazonia to global markets (e.g. exports of soybean and meat) it was necessary to portray this dependency as one important determinant within the scenarios. Also, law enforcement of the existing legal situation was considered: more than 40% of Amazônia comprises protected areas. In order to portray the possibility of progressive environmental and indigenous legislation, a vibrant civil society, and well-institutionalized public prosecutors, a sustainability scenario was designed.
The next step was the quantification of the qualitative information to facilitate a simulation-based scenario analysis. Simulation models will be combined as software packages to support the decision-taking process from local to landscape and regional scale. All research and implementation activities include direct involvement of the stakeholders. Field experiments for improving C storage and ecosystem function will be performed in cooperation with an NGO founded by the farmers of Mato Grosso.
Other important information: A set of land use maps was generated to depict scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The objective of this modelling and mapping exercise is to support decision-makers to better interpret the scenarios and their implications. These new layers of information will facilitate further model or GIS-based analysis of land use change impacts on the regional carbon balance and the loss of biodiversity, and may act as a test-bed for the development of strategies towards sustainable land management.
The Approach focused mainly on other activities than SLM (carbon-optimized land management)
The joint main goals are 1) to perform region-specific analyses in order to improve and apply interdisciplinary sets of models of land use impacts on carbon stocks, water and GHG balances, 2) to develop and optimize land management strategies that minimize carbon losses and GHG emissions, and maximize carbon sequestration, 3) to assess the trade-offs between land management options and socio-economic impacts in terms of GHG reduction, profitability, ecological sustainability, and last but not least, 4) to support the Brazilian partners to implement the optimal techniques in practice, considering the soybean value chain and overall carbon balance.
The SLM Approach addressed the following problems: High loss of vegetative and soil carbon due to agricultural expansion (deforestation), agricultural emissions, biodiversity loss.
Acceptance of research results
Treatment through the SLM Approach: Dissemination of research results in the form of policy briefs (short graphical illustration of results) and “output-stick” (USB stick with more detailed research results).
Treatment through the SLM Approach: None
The existing land ownership, land use rights / water rights greatly hindered the approach implementation Especially in Pará, land tenure rights are uncertain and lead to land speculation with resultant land degradation and deforestation.
Indigenous groups were involved in stakeholder workshops with the aim of discussing different storyline options, and in the following feedback loops discussing the resulting storylines.
|启动/动机||互动||Land users and planning authorities; identification of research priorities, state-of-the-art of agricultural practices, identification of problems.|
|Research||被动||Research plots for demonstration.|
The scenario building process. Qualitative scenarios (“storylines”) were developed by an expert panel and successively refined with feedback from regional stakeholders and project partners. In the second step the storylines were interpreted, quantified, and used for scenario building and analysis based on computer models.
Decisions on the method of implementing the SLM Technology were made by by land users* alone (self-initiative / bottom-up)
Training focused on raising awareness of the consequences of “business-as-usual” behavior compared with other scenarios.
Name of method used for advisory service: dissemination of research results in the form of policy briefs and more detailed “output sticks”
Advisory service is quite adequate to ensure the continuation of land conservation activities
bio-physical aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through observations
bio-physical aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through measurements
socio-cultural aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through observations
socio-cultural aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through measurements
There were few changes in the Approach as a result of monitoring and evaluation: Dissemination; form of dissemination was adjusted according to the requirements of target groups.
There were no changes in the Technology as a result of monitoring and evaluation
Research was carried out both on station and on-farm
Approach costs were met by the following donors: international (German Ministry of Education and Research BMBF): 100.0%
Identification of method of applying organic matter to soil; identification of kind of agriculture most suitable for specific region/area; type of crop sown; crop sowing dates; economic return/economic optimization.
Research had no effect on land tenure; research was not aimed at solving the problem, rather research helped to identify the problem. The problem is likely to be overcome in the near future. reforms of land tenure rights underway
Did other land users / projects adopt the Approach?
Did the Approach lead to improved livelihoods / human well-being?
Did the Approach help to alleviate poverty?
- well-being and livelihoods improvement
No-till agriculture, crop rotations, recommended sowing dates, expanding agricultural land according to crop yield information, and information regarding negative effects of cropland/rangeland expansion (e.g. soil and site specific GHG emissions) which were identified through the different scenarios.
|improved choice of crop/crop rotation; more environmental friendly choice of kind of agriculture employed (agroforestry systems); improved awareness of existence and functionality of regulations in favor of sustainability better dissemination; heightened awareness of land users to sustainability topics and environmental degradation|
|Acceptance of results by famers, planning authorities, decision makers in general (political level).|
J. Goepel et al. (2016) Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in Southern Amazonia and resultant greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils, to be published in Regional Environmental Change Special Issue “Southern Amazonia”,(in review)
Schönenberg et al. (2016)Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land use options in Southern Amazonia, to be published in Ecology & Society (in review)
R. Schaldach et al. (to be published) A multi-scale modelling framework for the analysis of societal and environmental processes in Southern Amazonian land systems: Lessons learned from the Carbiocial project.