方法

From storylines to scenarios: raising awareness and decision support [巴西]

approaches_2616 - 巴西

完整性: 89%

1. 一般信息

1.2 参与方法评估和文件编制的资源人员和机构的联系方式

关键资源人员

SLM专业人员:
SLM专业人员:
SLM专业人员:

Gil Juliana

julianagil@uol.com.br

Embrapa Rice & Beans,

巴西

Guggenberger Georg

Leibniz University Hannover

德国

SLM专业人员:

Klingler Michael

University of Innsbruck

德国

SLM专业人员:

Lakes Tobia

Humboldt-University Berlin

SLM专业人员:

Böhner Jürgen

University Hamburg

德国

SLM专业人员:

Schaldach Rüdiger

University Kassel

德国

SLM专业人员:

Siebold Matthias

University Hohenheim

德国

SLM专业人员:

Nendel Claas

Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)

德国

SLM专业人员:

Schönenberg Regine

Free University Berlin

德国

SLM专业人员:

Gerold Gerhard

Georg August University Göttingen

德国

有助于对方法进行记录/评估的项目名称(如相关)
Carbon optimized land management strategies for southern Amazonia (CARBIOCIAL / GLUES)
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的项目名称(如相关)
Book project: Making sense of research for sustainable land management (GLUES)
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称(如相关)
Georg August Universität Göttingen (Georg August Universität Göttingen) - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称(如相关)
Leibniz Institute for Regional Geography (IfL) - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称(如相关)
Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (HU Berlin) - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称(如相关)
Universität Kassel - 德国
有助于对方法进行记录/评估的机构名称(如相关)
Universität Hamburg (UHH) - 德国

1.3 关于使用通过WOCAT记录的数据的条件

(现场)数据是什么时候汇编的?:

18/06/2016

编制者和关键资源人员接受有关使用通过WOCAT记录数据的条件。:

1.4 SLM技术问卷的参考

2. SLM方法的描述

2.1 该方法的简要说明

Investigating viable carbon-optimized land management strategies, which maintain or improve ecosystem function, under changing climate conditions in the Southern Amazon - using regional scenarios generated from storylines.

2.2 该方法的详细说明

该方法的详细说明:

Aims / objectives: One objective of the Carbiocial project, in close cooperation with its Brazilian partner project Carbioma, is to explore how land use change in one of Brazil’s most dynamic regions will develop in the next 30 years and how it will be affected by the implementation of land-use planning options and conservation policies. For this purpose a set of scenarios was created. The scenarios portray different plausible development pathways for the region. Each scenario consists of a storyline: a brief narrative of the future. At this level farmers and institutions are involved. An expert panel translated the findings of several stakeholder workshops and extensive stakeholder and expert interviews, conducted in 2012, into qualitative information needed to elaborate these scenarios. Four storylines emerged: (1) “business-as-usual”; (2) sustainable, extensive use of the Amazon; (3) legal intensification; (3) illegal intensification.

Methods: It was agreed that the communication between qualitative social science data and quantitative data had to be considered carefully. A blend of the required input factors for the models was agreed as guiding principles for all storylines: these were: population, agrarian production, livestock, agrarian and environmental policies, protected areas, infrastructure, impact of climate change (mitigation/adaptation). In a second step, qualitative data had to be added to the models; to limit bias, all available German experts on Southern Amazonia participated in a day-long (and quite controversial) brainstorming session producing content for the four storylines.
After translating the results into Portuguese the outcome was discussed with representatives of government and NGOs to discuss their plausibility and to modify accordingly. The input of local stakeholders was included on the basis of discussions and qualitative interviews. Generally speaking, the feedback loops with Brazilian stakeholders’ happened rather arbitrarily. Participation could have been better if planned more methodically and earlier.
The three hypothetical storylines describe different pathways of future regional development within the two states. Due to the strong linkages of Southern Amazonia to global markets (e.g. exports of soybean and meat) it was necessary to portray this dependency as one important determinant within the scenarios. Also, law enforcement of the existing legal situation was considered: more than 40% of Amazônia comprises protected areas. In order to portray the possibility of progressive environmental and indigenous legislation, a vibrant civil society, and well-institutionalized public prosecutors, a sustainability scenario was designed.
The next step was the quantification of the qualitative information to facilitate a simulation-based scenario analysis. Simulation models will be combined as software packages to support the decision-taking process from local to landscape and regional scale. All research and implementation activities include direct involvement of the stakeholders. Field experiments for improving C storage and ecosystem function will be performed in cooperation with an NGO founded by the farmers of Mato Grosso.

Other important information: A set of land use maps was generated to depict scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The objective of this modelling and mapping exercise is to support decision-makers to better interpret the scenarios and their implications. These new layers of information will facilitate further model or GIS-based analysis of land use change impacts on the regional carbon balance and the loss of biodiversity, and may act as a test-bed for the development of strategies towards sustainable land management.

2.3 该方法的照片

2.5 采用该方法的国家/地区/地点

国家:

巴西

区域/州/省:

Mato Grosso/Pará, Brazil

2.6 该方法的开始和终止日期

注明开始年份:

2011

终止年份(若不再采用该方法):

2016

2.7 方法的类型

  • 基于项目/方案

2.8 该方法的主要目的/目标

The Approach focused mainly on other activities than SLM (carbon-optimized land management)

The joint main goals are 1) to perform region-specific analyses in order to improve and apply interdisciplinary sets of models of land use impacts on carbon stocks, water and GHG balances, 2) to develop and optimize land management strategies that minimize carbon losses and GHG emissions, and maximize carbon sequestration, 3) to assess the trade-offs between land management options and socio-economic impacts in terms of GHG reduction, profitability, ecological sustainability, and last but not least, 4) to support the Brazilian partners to implement the optimal techniques in practice, considering the soybean value chain and overall carbon balance.

The SLM Approach addressed the following problems: High loss of vegetative and soil carbon due to agricultural expansion (deforestation), agricultural emissions, biodiversity loss.

2.9 推动或妨碍实施本办法所适用的技术的条件

社会/文化/宗教规范和价值观
  • 阻碍

Acceptance of research results

Treatment through the SLM Approach: Dissemination of research results in the form of policy briefs (short graphical illustration of results) and “output-stick” (USB stick with more detailed research results).

法律框架(土地使用权、土地和水使用权)
  • 阻碍

Land tenure

Treatment through the SLM Approach: None

The existing land ownership, land use rights / water rights greatly hindered the approach implementation Especially in Pará, land tenure rights are uncertain and lead to land speculation with resultant land degradation and deforestation.

3. 相关利益相关者的参与和角色

3.1 该方法涉及的利益相关者及其职责

  • 当地土地使用者/当地社区
  • 社区组织

Indigenous groups were involved in stakeholder workshops with the aim of discussing different storyline options, and in the following feedback loops discussing the resulting storylines.

  • SLM专家/农业顾问
  • 国家政府(规划者、决策者)

planning authorities

3.2 当地土地使用者/当地社区参与该方法的不同阶段
当地土地使用者/当地社区的参与 指定参与人员并描述活动
启动/动机 互动 Land users and planning authorities; identification of research priorities, state-of-the-art of agricultural practices, identification of problems.
计划
实施
监测/评估
Research 被动 Research plots for demonstration.

3.3 流程图(如可用)

具体说明:

The scenario building process. Qualitative scenarios (“storylines”) were developed by an expert panel and successively refined with feedback from regional stakeholders and project partners. In the second step the storylines were interpreted, quantified, and used for scenario building and analysis based on computer models.

3.4 有关SLM技术选择的决策

具体说明谁有权决定选择要实施的技术:
  • 主要是SLM专家,咨询土地使用者之后
解释:

Decisions on the method of implementing the SLM Technology were made by by land users* alone (self-initiative / bottom-up)

4. 技术支持、能力建设和知识管理

4.1 能力建设/培训

是否为土地使用者/其他利益相关者提供培训?:

明确受训人员:
  • 土地使用者
培训形式:
  • 农民对农民
  • 示范区域
  • 公开会议
涵盖的主题:

Training focused on raising awareness of the consequences of “business-as-usual” behavior compared with other scenarios.

4.2 咨询服务

土地使用者有权使用咨询服务吗?:

指明是否提供了咨询服务:
  • 在土地使用者的土地上
说明/注释:

Name of method used for advisory service: dissemination of research results in the form of policy briefs and more detailed “output sticks”

Advisory service is quite adequate to ensure the continuation of land conservation activities

4.3 机构强化(组织发展)

是否通过这种方法建立或加强了机构?:

4.4 监测和评估

监测和评估是该方法的一部分吗?:

注释:

bio-physical aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through observations
bio-physical aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through measurements
socio-cultural aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through observations
socio-cultural aspects were ad hoc monitored by project staff through measurements
There were few changes in the Approach as a result of monitoring and evaluation: Dissemination; form of dissemination was adjusted according to the requirements of target groups.
There were no changes in the Technology as a result of monitoring and evaluation

4.5 研究

研究是该方法的一部分吗?

明确话题:
  • 生态学
  • 技术
提供进一步的细节,并指出是谁做的研究:

Research was carried out both on station and on-farm

5. 融资和外部物质支持

5.1 该方法中SLM组成部分的年度预算

如果不知道准确的年度预算,请给出一个范围:
  • 100,000-1,000,000
注释(例如主要的资助来源/主要捐助者):

Approach costs were met by the following donors: international (German Ministry of Education and Research BMBF): 100.0%

5.2 为土地使用者提供财政/物质支援

土地使用者是否获得实施该技术的财政/物质支持?:

5.4 信用

是否根据SLM活动的方法给予信用值?:

6. 影响分析和结论性陈述

6.1 方法的影响

该方法是否帮助土地使用者实施和维护SLM技术?:
  • 是,很少
  • 是,中等
  • 是,支持力度很大

Identification of method of applying organic matter to soil; identification of kind of agriculture most suitable for specific region/area; type of crop sown; crop sowing dates; economic return/economic optimization.

该方法是否有助于社会和经济弱势群体?:
  • 是,很少
  • 是,中等
  • 是,支持力度很大
该方法是否改善了阻碍SLM技术实施的土地使用权/用户权问题?:
  • 是,很少
  • 是,中等
  • 是,支持力度很大

Research had no effect on land tenure; research was not aimed at solving the problem, rather research helped to identify the problem. The problem is likely to be overcome in the near future. reforms of land tenure rights underway

Did other land users / projects adopt the Approach?
  • 是,很少
  • 是,中等
  • 是,支持力度很大
Did the Approach lead to improved livelihoods / human well-being?
  • 是,很少
  • 是,中等
  • 是,支持力度很大
Did the Approach help to alleviate poverty?
  • 是,很少
  • 是,中等
  • 是,支持力度很大

6.2 土地使用者实施SLM的主要动机

  • 增加生产
  • 增加利润(能力),提高成本效益比
  • 支付/补贴
  • 规章制度(罚款)/执行
  • well-being and livelihoods improvement

6.3 方法活动的可持续性

土地使用者能否维持通过该方法实施的措施(无外部支持的情况下)?:
若是,请说明如何维持:

No-till agriculture, crop rotations, recommended sowing dates, expanding agricultural land according to crop yield information, and information regarding negative effects of cropland/rangeland expansion (e.g. soil and site specific GHG emissions) which were identified through the different scenarios.

6.4 该方法的长处/优点

编制者或其他关键资源人员认为的长处/优势/机会
improved choice of crop/crop rotation; more environmental friendly choice of kind of agriculture employed (agroforestry systems); improved awareness of existence and functionality of regulations in favor of sustainability better dissemination; heightened awareness of land users to sustainability topics and environmental degradation

6.5 该方法的弱点/缺点以及克服它们的方法

编制者或其他关键资源人员认为的弱点/缺点/风险 如何克服它们?
Acceptance of results by famers, planning authorities, decision makers in general (political level).

7. 参考和链接

7.1 方法/信息来源

  • 实地考察、实地调查
  • 与土地使用者的访谈

7.2 参考可用出版物

标题、作者、年份、ISBN:

J. Goepel et al. (2016) Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in Southern Amazonia and resultant greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural soils, to be published in Regional Environmental Change Special Issue “Southern Amazonia”,(in review)

标题、作者、年份、ISBN:

Schönenberg et al. (2016)Inter- and transdisciplinary scenario construction to explore future land use options in Southern Amazonia, to be published in Ecology & Society (in review)

标题、作者、年份、ISBN:

R. Schaldach et al. (to be published) A multi-scale modelling framework for the analysis of societal and environmental processes in Southern Amazonian land systems: Lessons learned from the Carbiocial project.

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